Map growing
Uncertainty and agency
A field map for acting with awareness when outcomes, other people, and surrounding systems cannot be controlled.
#uncertainty
Tags gather notes that currently share a label. They are not a curriculum or a claim that the notes agree.
Evergreen note evergreen
Knowledge does not guarantee outcomes
Knowledge can improve perception and choice, but it cannot make uncertain systems produce promised results.
Evergreen note evergreen
Agency does not guarantee control
A person can choose and act meaningfully without controlling other people, systems, timing, or the final outcome.
Evergreen note evergreen
Decisions and outcomes are different
The quality of a decision must be examined using what was knowable at the time, not only what happened afterward.
Evergreen note evergreen
Evidence reduces but does not remove uncertainty
Evidence can update a position and narrow possibilities, but it rarely eliminates ambiguity, change, or unknown conditions.
Evergreen note growing
AI exposure is not the same as job replacement
A task or occupation can be highly exposed to generative AI without that exposure translating directly into elimination of the whole job.
Open question growing
When should we act without certainty?
An open question about acting when waiting has a cost and complete knowledge is impossible.
Experiment growing
Can small experiments reduce the cost of being wrong?
An ongoing experiment in using bounded, reversible tests before larger commitments when uncertainty cannot be removed first.
Source evergreen
Outcome bias in decision evaluation
Five studies showing that knowledge of an outcome can change how people evaluate the quality of a prior decision even when the decision maker had the same information at the time.
Source evergreen
Reproducibility and Replicability in Science
A National Academies consensus report on how replication, measurement, research design, and uncertainty affect confidence in scientific results.
Source evergreen
IPCC AR6 treatment of uncertainty
The IPCC AR6 framework for communicating confidence from evidence and agreement separately from probabilistic likelihood.