Testing an idea before it costs you
How do you find out if this is worth building, cheaply?
A practical sequence for taking something you believe and putting it in front of reality while being wrong is still affordable.
- 01 Separate what you know from what you are assuming, before either gets expensive. Mapping assumptions
A method for separating observations, interpretations, dependencies, and unknowns before acting on a plan.
- 02 The open question this method is trying to answer. Can small experiments reduce the cost of being wrong?
An ongoing experiment in using bounded, reversible tests before larger commitments when uncertainty cannot be removed first.
- 03 The method itself, in usable form. Running small experiments
A method for letting an idea meet reality while the cost of being wrong remains bounded and reversible.
- 04 A randomised trial on founders doing exactly this. A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making
A randomized controlled trial in startups testing whether explicit hypotheses and rigorous market tests improve entrepreneurial decision making.
- 05 Where the method stops being a method and becomes the work. Make an idea meet reality
A studio invitation to choose a question, make a bounded attempt, observe consequences, and revise without forcing a success story.
- 06 The honest ceiling. Testing improves the odds; it does not buy certainty. Evidence reduces but does not remove uncertainty
Evidence can update a position and narrow possibilities, but it rarely eliminates ambiguity, change, or unknown conditions.
Small, reversible tests convert opinion into evidence. The goal is not to be right early — it is to be wrong cheaply.
A path is one route, not the only one. Every note above links outward — leave whenever something else pulls harder.
- What learning actually requires
Why does studying harder sometimes fail to make you better?
- Deciding without certainty
How do you judge a choice when you cannot know how it will end?
- AI and the shape of work
Is AI taking the job, or changing what the job is?
- Freedom and its consequences
How much of your life do you actually control?